The dynamics are easy to understand. The downward pressure on the pricing of commodity payments, the ubiquity of intelligent devices (of which the mobile is currently the most important) and the ease of connecting banks, retailers, processors and others, combine to create a new landscape, where most of the value of the payments layer comes from the ability to identify and authenticate the participants in the transaction.
We have long observed, in our classification, that in the long run digital identity will be more valuable than digital money. This is because authentication is difficult and expensive: if you break down the way that, say, your debit card works, and separate the authentication part (the chip and PIN) from the processing and settlement of the transaction (and all of the fraud management, customer support and so on) you can see the asymmetry between the money part — a few bytes moving from bank to bank — and the identity part.
There is an interesting area for speculation identified by this analysis. Who will provide the identity functions? Will it be the existing players who bundle identity as part of the payments business — PayPal or Barclaycard — or will it be players who deal with identity and reputation — Experian or the Passport Services — or will it be the players who with authentication and switching — Vodafone or Google — or will it be an entirely new class of organisation?
I have a suspicion that it will be the latter. Just as new economic environments have led to new kinds of organisations before, so they will again. Just as Visa arose to exploit new opportunities, so something like Visa arise to create a digital identity infrastructure that creates new value. There is some logic to the proposition that it will be the mobile operators who in some way will give birth to this new organisation. That’s because the technology required to implement digital identity is founded on public key infrastructure (PKI) and for this to work we need some secure storage, some tamper-resistant hardware, to store our private keys and to execute authentication processes. Right now, the one piece of tamper-resistant hardware that everyone has is the SIM in their mobile phone. Indeed, there are a number of initiatives around the world that are already starting to use the SIM for precisely this purposes. The examples of Turkcell in Turkey and BankID in a number of Scandinavian markets have been looked at before. I’ve bored about this at length before:
One of the world’s leading experts in this field, David Birch, spent some time with me explaining how mobile operators, in particular, could actually become ‘smart pipes’ with financial transactions. The ‘secret sauce’ according to Birch, lies in the ability for operators to provide secure identification linked to the SIM providing private and public keys for multiple providers. The resultant digital signatures would allow for ultra-secure tow level authentication via the mobile device.
[From The ‘secret sauce’? – The Insider – TM Forum Online Community]
How might this play out? In the US, we already see ACH alternatives to scheme payments emerging. An example is the “Pinpoint” card marketed by First Data ISO American Payment Systems. It provides a per-retailer loyalty scheme combined with ACH payment. Imagine something like this combined with stronger 2FA authentication at POS — perhaps using 2FA to release an identity credential or authenticating using some mobile network-based validation (eg, ValidSoft’s “proximity” transactions validation) — to create a product where the payment is a commodity but identity isn’t.

